Sonya Seunghye LimFormer Chief of Station, CIA
Sonya Seunghye Lim is a former chief of the Central Intelligence Agency where she had a distinguished career of 24 years in the 24-year Directorate of Operations, which included two assignments as station chief. He also served as head of operations at CIA headquarters.
Christopher TurnerFormer CIA operations officer
Christopher Turner had a 25-year career in the Directorate of Operations of the Central Intelligence Agency, during which time he completed a number of sensitive tasks in the Far East, South Asia and Europe.
Opinions – From the optics of the United States Intelligence Community (USIC), the Cold War did not end with the fall of Communism in the 1990s. Its appearance was merely changed. Under a thin satire of economic and political involvement, Russia and China continue to pose a threat to liberal democratic ideals and values. The last twenty years have seen massive Russian and Chinese campaigns against the United States and its allies for stealing our privacy and promoting anti-democratic propaganda.
But outside of USIC, economic advantage was the preferred approach, regardless of political compromise and long-term costs, without a clear-sighted account. This kind of deliberate thinking breeds a false sense of security যে that wars can be contained and aggressors can be driven out of their crazy plans. From the 2008 Rousseau-Georgia war to Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014, its direct entry into the Syrian conflict in 2015 and its invasion of Ukraine this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again proved how wrong and imaginary such an idea was. A world emerging from the horrors of Putin’s recent mass shootings will need decisive action and clear policies to curb its horrific consequences ভুল widespread misinformation, continued cyberattacks, and erosion of the economy, security, and intelligence.
Since his invasion of Ukraine, the airwaves, the Internet and the print media have been observing and analyzing Putin’s many mistakes, despite his hints and calls for his KGB background and huge intelligence apparatus. It is clear that Putin chose to wage this war on the basis of countless miscalculations, a miscalculation of his military skills and readiness, and weak, misinterpreted or dismissed intelligence (or perhaps all three). Putin’s Russia as a threat to democratic ideals is no longer an abstraction that can be removed or otherwise relinquished for political gain. Putin is now proving that he is a threat to any sign of world security and stability; He has no other role or purpose in the world. Although Putin’s war has so far failed to achieve its strategic goals, it has accelerated the inevitable clash between liberal democracy and authoritarianism and divided much of the world – albeit in very simple terms – into two camps, good and evil.
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This division has also affected global discipline and priorities. After sending mixed signals, the United States has re-emerged as the leader of liberal democracies that have stood up to brutal authoritarian regimes. The development could also lead to closer agreements between the United States and the European Union (EU) on their policy towards China. And, in coldly realistic terms, the United States could benefit from a new repetition of the Cold War as the EU dramatically reduces its power dependence and trade on Russia. Germany gives a clear example in this regard. Germany has maintained close ties with Russia for the past four decades. The construction of the Nord Stream II pipeline illustrated Berlin’s once favorable position towards Russia, despite limited sanctions at the time and US bowing. All of this has changed since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and Germany is now on the verge of playing a more prominent role in the European Union, determining the future of the region in terms of security and military.
With Russia’s significant deterioration of economic relations with the European Union, China will probably be Putin’s only viable alternative for economic and political support. Given China’s established and growing conflict with the United States and the European Union, Russia and China seem fortunate to be able to strengthen their cooperation, given that trade and China’s influence and expansion of the region coincide with the overwhelming need for Chinese power. Exactly how this collaboration will be picked remains uncertain, but it is simply a cause of illness for the non-authoritarian world.
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Russia, however, has other, albeit smaller, de-facto supporters. As the largest producer of fossil fuel energy, Arab countries will benefit from rising energy prices due to late-epidemic demand and sanctions against Russia. Arab countries that have not backed US / EU sanctions against Russia could become safe havens for Russian oligarchs. It is not surprising that some of them have already begun to park in an effort to avoid seizing their most outstanding resources in the region.
Attitudes provide an abundance of depression and destruction, but we must always remember that, in the midst of great obstacles and challenges, equally great opportunities often lie. In the recent past, energy dependence, economic investment, and risk aversion have been some of the main obstacles to closer cooperation between the United States and the European Union on Russia and China. We are witnessing a dangerous formation of an international system where Russia and China reaffirm their commitment to the US-led alliance and its objectives. But we also see exploitative weaknesses under Putin. Survival instincts, change of allegiance, and crude greed at both the individual and national levels will present opportunities to gather the core intelligence of the ultimate adversary of liberal democracy. We are also witnessing the immense power of ideology, liberal values and collective action.
In the coming months and years, regardless of the outcome of Putin’s war against Ukraine, Russia and China will wage a more intense espionage war against the United States and its allies. The good news is that liberal democracies have finally awakened from the complacency they have suffered since the fall of communism. Now is the time to commit to comprehensive intelligence and security cooperation among our allies so that we can formulate consistent and clear policies to address this existing and impending threat.
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